Will they, won’t they? What to expect (or not) in the Autumn Budget

The Autumn Budget is almost upon us and, we have been mulling over what important changes we expect the Chancellor to make.

We anticipate that there will be a change to the way Stamp Duty is structured: the publication of Theresa May’s White Paper earlier in the year identified a broken housing market, and coupled with this and the slowdown nationally in transaction volumes off the back of political and economic uncertainty, change to stamp duty would be a logical next step to fix this.

What we think is unlikely, but not off the table completely, is that there will be any big adjustment at the top end of the market, in the +£1 million category. A small reduction in the charges at the prime end could have a big impact on liquidity, however this is probably not where the Chancellor will be focussed.

A more plausible scenario is another stamp duty holiday for first time buyers, similar to that between 2010 and 2012, when properties below £250,000 were exempt from stamp duty. A move like this is unlikely to have much impact in London where average property prices are £483,568, according to HM Land Registry, but could help improve liquidity in the rest of the UK.  A stamp duty holiday together with the continuation of Help to Buy, will benefit this important part of the housing sector.

There have also been calls for the Government to remove stamp duty entirely for older homeowners, to encourage people to downsize. It’s hard to see how this could be implemented but supporters say this would help increase the supply of family sized homes. A guise of this in conjunction with further stimulus for increasing housing supply, rather than just supporting demand, may be at the forefront of the Budget. For example, the government could give corporate tax reductions to encourage developers to deliver new housing in certain areas where there is a particular supply and demand imbalance.

Lastly, in a bid to win back some popularity amongst the younger generations, we anticipate a probable shake-up of student loans, something that would help support the student sector.

Watch this space…